Avocados From Mexico

The Prediction Pit

OVERVIEW

Super Bowl Sunday is guac’s biggest day and Avocados From Mexico has historically shown up with big game advertising to keep guacamole central to football culture. But fandom is no longer a lean-back viewing moment. It’s a second-screen sport. Fans track stats, manage fantasy lineups, place bets, and react in group chats.

  • 87% of sports fans use a second screen while watching sports
  • 50% of Super Bowl viewers say they plan to place some type of wager
  • 60%+ of Millennials say they watch major sports events while texting in group chats
  • Objectives

    • Stay culturally relevant and in the conversation before and during the Big Game
    • Move avocado volume by reinforcing guac as an essential part of game day
    • Build brand relevance in a category that rarely gets credit for innovation
  • Insight

    Forget the armchair quarterback. Pro football has become a participation sport.

    With fans predicting outcomes every week, from winners to touchdowns to player stats, the brand that helps them play along doesn’t feel like an interruption. It feels like part of the game.

  • Strategic Approach

    Stop interrupting the game day moment and start earning a spot inside it.

    Avocados From Mexico added guac utility to the game day behaviors fans already have, in order to reinforce guac as the ritual centerpiece of a winning game day.

THE BIG IDEA

Turn guacamole into a game day “oracle” that lives in the second-screen universe, and use AI to bring it to life in an unexpected way.

  • Execution

    The Prediction Pit was a digital experience that bridged AI, data, and fan behavior using an avocado-loving avatar of Rob Riggle to deliver personalized predictions to fans. Instead of a crystal ball, he had a bowl of all-knowing guac.

    The Tech

    • We used a combination of AI technologies to create an avatar that had the look, sound, and mannerisms of Rob Riggle, and was completely brand safe.
    • A continuous feed of data from Sportsdata.io gave the bowl of guac its visions.

The Prediction Pit, Two Ways

Prediction markets don’t sleep, and neither did this experience.

Always-On Mode

Predictions that use the recent week’s data

  • Fans selected their team and a prediction, then received a dynamic video personalized with their name, delivered with Rob Riggle’s comedic commentary.
  • Predictions covered outcomes like winners, player stats and touchdowns.
  • Every prediction ended with a team-inspired guac recipe (e.g., Burnt-Ends Brisket Guac for Dallas; Ceviche Guac for Seattle) driving avocado purchases

Live Playoff Mode

A second-screen competition that used real-time game data

  • A real-time companion experience that tracked live games and prompted fans to predict what would happen next (quarter-by-quarter moments like fumbles, touchdown runs, etc.).
  • Fans competed against Riggle and the “all-knowing guac,” then got instant feedback, with Riggle chiming in to keep it playful.
  • During breaks in play, users received sharable scorecards and guac recipe content designed for social bragging rights.
  • Results​

    The Prediction Pit helped take Avocados From Mexico to their largest Super Bowl ever, with a 20% increase in avocado imports totaling 304 million pounds in the four weeks leading up to Super Bowl.

    Additional results included:

    • An average time of 9 minutes spent on site
    • Nearly 2 million page views
    • 564 million impressions from earned coverage celebrating the category-first innovation
    • 100+ PR features/headlines

Avocados From Mexico didn’t ask fans to watch an ad. They gave them something better: a way to play. They turned guac into a second-screen ritual and a competitor in the prediction economy, and made the brand an MVP ingredient on the biggest food day of the year.

CASE STUDY VIDEO

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